After an underwhelming start to the league season, the LFC doom and gloom brigade is out in force, confidently predicting that the end is nigh. Apparently, the club will be lucky to finish in the top half of the table; Roy Hodgson’s job is on the line, and a new Manager's first 6 league games is all it takes to predict how an entire season will pan out (!). Any fair-mind, reasonable fan will just dismiss such hysterical nonsense outright, and as I will show, the first 6 league games are an accurate prognostication of precisely *nothing*.
Below is a side-by-side comparison of the first 6 league games under every manager since Graeme Souness:
So – what can we learn from these figures?
1. A high points total in first 6 games doesn’t necessarily equate to a higher league finish. Examples:
91-92: 13 points in first 6 games. Final position = 6th
96-97: 14 points in first 6 games. Final position = 4th.
09-10: 12 point in first 6 games. Final league position = 7th.
2. A Low points total in first 6 games does not necessarily indicate a low league finish. Examples:
05-06: 7 points in the first 6 games. Final position = 3rd
97-98: 9 points in the first 6 games. Final position = 3rd
3. Low number of goals scored and/or poor goal difference does not necessarily mean a poor league season. Examples:
05-06: 4 goals scored/6 conceded in first 6 games (-2 goal difference). Final position = 3rd
97-98: 8 goals scored/8 conceded in first 6 games. Final position = 3rd
4. Lots of goals scored does not necessarily mean a good league finish. Examples:
02-03: 13 goals scored. Final position = 5th
09-10: 16 goals scored. Final position = 7th
Looking at the table above, were the first 6 games of any of the previous 19 seasons an accurate indicator of how things actually turned out? In 95% of cases, the answer is no. You can also interpret the figures in several different ways to back up whatever argument you’re trying to make. The point is, trying to use the first 6 league games as an indicator or *anything* is clearly ridiculous.
Fans need to start looking at the bigger picture: this season is not about rebuilding, playing sexy football, or mounting a title challenge. It is and always has been about transition and consolidation, and the ONLY target is finishing in the top 4. Cup runs are a welcome distraction but it all comes down to finishing in the top 4, and that MUST be achieved at all costs. If that means the club stumbles through the season and just scrapes in on the last day of the season then so be it; if it means the club has to win ugly, then that’s the way it has to be.
Such an approach is anathema to Liverpool fans (and is the complete opposite of what I want to see from LFC), but this is the reality, and I think fans have to start accepting it. In all probability, things will probably get worse before they get better; I imagine we’ll see a few more disappointing results in the next couple of months. However, as long as the club is within touching distance of 4th place after Christmas, I think we’ll be in a great position to build momentum in the second half of the season.
The squad is lacking real quality in certain areas but we still have the players – and the manager – to get the club into 4th place. I truly believe that, which is why I am not worried in the slightest about our current form.
And please don't give me the Man City excuse, i.e. 'But City have spent X amount of money, which means they'll overtake us'. There is no evidence whatsoever to support that. Look at the facts: In the last 3 completed seasons, City spent 250m + on transfers, and finished 9th, 10th and 5th, failing to qualify for Champions League even once. Money is not always the deciding factor when it comes to finishing in the top 4, and this season will be no exception.
Patience is the key here; this season is/will be a (sometimes gruelling) marathon, not a sprint, but Liverpool *will* cross the finish line in 3rd or 4th place.
Things can and WILL get better.
Below is a side-by-side comparison of the first 6 league games under every manager since Graeme Souness:
So – what can we learn from these figures?
1. A high points total in first 6 games doesn’t necessarily equate to a higher league finish. Examples:
91-92: 13 points in first 6 games. Final position = 6th
96-97: 14 points in first 6 games. Final position = 4th.
09-10: 12 point in first 6 games. Final league position = 7th.
2. A Low points total in first 6 games does not necessarily indicate a low league finish. Examples:
05-06: 7 points in the first 6 games. Final position = 3rd
97-98: 9 points in the first 6 games. Final position = 3rd
3. Low number of goals scored and/or poor goal difference does not necessarily mean a poor league season. Examples:
05-06: 4 goals scored/6 conceded in first 6 games (-2 goal difference). Final position = 3rd
97-98: 8 goals scored/8 conceded in first 6 games. Final position = 3rd
4. Lots of goals scored does not necessarily mean a good league finish. Examples:
02-03: 13 goals scored. Final position = 5th
09-10: 16 goals scored. Final position = 7th
Looking at the table above, were the first 6 games of any of the previous 19 seasons an accurate indicator of how things actually turned out? In 95% of cases, the answer is no. You can also interpret the figures in several different ways to back up whatever argument you’re trying to make. The point is, trying to use the first 6 league games as an indicator or *anything* is clearly ridiculous.
Fans need to start looking at the bigger picture: this season is not about rebuilding, playing sexy football, or mounting a title challenge. It is and always has been about transition and consolidation, and the ONLY target is finishing in the top 4. Cup runs are a welcome distraction but it all comes down to finishing in the top 4, and that MUST be achieved at all costs. If that means the club stumbles through the season and just scrapes in on the last day of the season then so be it; if it means the club has to win ugly, then that’s the way it has to be.
Such an approach is anathema to Liverpool fans (and is the complete opposite of what I want to see from LFC), but this is the reality, and I think fans have to start accepting it. In all probability, things will probably get worse before they get better; I imagine we’ll see a few more disappointing results in the next couple of months. However, as long as the club is within touching distance of 4th place after Christmas, I think we’ll be in a great position to build momentum in the second half of the season.
The squad is lacking real quality in certain areas but we still have the players – and the manager – to get the club into 4th place. I truly believe that, which is why I am not worried in the slightest about our current form.
And please don't give me the Man City excuse, i.e. 'But City have spent X amount of money, which means they'll overtake us'. There is no evidence whatsoever to support that. Look at the facts: In the last 3 completed seasons, City spent 250m + on transfers, and finished 9th, 10th and 5th, failing to qualify for Champions League even once. Money is not always the deciding factor when it comes to finishing in the top 4, and this season will be no exception.
Patience is the key here; this season is/will be a (sometimes gruelling) marathon, not a sprint, but Liverpool *will* cross the finish line in 3rd or 4th place.
Things can and WILL get better.
Source: Jaimie Kanwar liverpool-kop.com
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